France’s economy is expected to grow only marginally in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest report released on Tuesday by the Bank of France.

The central bank cited a combination of factors, including a series of public holidays in May and mounting international trade tensions, as contributing to the subdued outlook.

In its monthly economic outlook, which is based on a survey of approximately 8,500 companies across the country, the Bank of France projected that gross domestic product would see only a slight increase during the April–June period. This follows a tepid 0.1% growth in the first quarter of the year.

“On the basis of the survey results, supplemented by other indicators, we estimate that activity will increase slightly in the second quarter of 2025,” the report stated.

While the services and industrial sectors are expected to experience a moderate rebound, momentum in the construction and energy sectors appears to be waning, Reuters reports.

Business leaders who participated in the survey also reported a heightened sense of uncertainty, particularly within the manufacturing sector, which is more exposed to international markets.

One of the primary concerns cited was the potential imposition of higher tariffs by the United States, a threat that looms large despite most firms believing they are not yet directly affected. The notable exception was the wine industry, which continues to feel vulnerable to potential trade barriers.

On the pricing front, manufacturers indicated they were maintaining stable prices, while service-sector firms reported only modest price increases. The central bank interpreted these findings as signs of contained inflationary pressure in the short term.

May’s packed calendar of public holidays is also expected to take a toll on economic activity, with many firms anticipating a slowdown in output and operations during the month.

Overall, the Bank of France’s cautious forecast underscores the fragile state of the country’s economic recovery. As global trade dynamics remain volatile and domestic structural challenges persist, the second half of the year could prove critical in determining whether France can sustain even modest growth.