Who will be France’s next President?

In just over a year, the French will vote to elect their new president. Of course, it’s far too early to make any guesses at who it will be. British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said that “one week is a long time in politics,” so a year must be an eternity. However, given the high stakes of the outcome for France and Europe, a first assessment should be attempted.

deVere France understands that if opinion polls are to be correct, France’s next president is unlikely to be François Hollande or Nicolas Sarkozy, the two most recent leaders of the office. Hollande is the current president, but the people of France feel his performance has been substandard on nearly all fronts, especially when it comes to fighting unemployment. Meanwhile, Sarkozy’s odds are hindered by his unsavoury character.

The French president under the Fifth Republic is, in British terms, both monarch and prime minister. He holds symbolic as well as real powers. Some may say that Sarkozy was unsuccessful while Hollande failed in the realms of both incarnation and action. In reality, they say a man who was “too much” was succeeded by one that was just “not enough”. Ultimately, structural reforms have been left undone or were implemented only when it was too late. The impact on Europe has also been disappointing in many respects.

The political atmosphere is dominated by two major developments. On one hand, Hollande’s Socialist Party seems on the verge of political extinction. And on the other hand, the far-right National Front and its leader, Marine Le Pen, are enjoying a steady rise. Polls show the party have one-third of the support, the highest in the country, making it very likely that Le Pen will reach the second round of the presidential election.

The majority of French voters believe that next year’s election will be their final attempt to regain control of their country’s destiny, rekindle its influence in Europe, and forge a new sense of direction.