French economy should avoid recession in 2022

09 Dec 2022

France's economy should sidestep a recession at the end of the year, according to a Bank of France forecast on Thursday.

The country's central bank predicts the economy will grow 0.1% in the final four months of 2022, avoiding a recession, seen as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Impacted by skyrocketing energy prices and the cost-of-living crisis, French GDP declined 0.2% in Q3 this year. The picture is similar throughout Europe, with a number of major economies affected, Euronews reports.

The Bank of France said the figures were "good news" and showed the resilience of French businesses.

Services and construction performed better than expected last month, and there had been an "increase in activity," according to Olivier Garnier, Director General of Statistics at the central bank. 

"Overall, there is no fall in activity at the end of the year", he added.

GDP is set to grow by 0.1% in Q4, confirming the prior forecast of a "very slight increase.

"Of course, it is still marred by uncertainty, but we have an activity which is resisting well and even rather a little better than expected," Garnier went on to say.

In addition, on Friday, the head of the central bank Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said the French economy will "probably" slightly expand in 2023.

"I can't rule out a recession, but this is not our baseline scenario," he told Franceinfo radio, adding he forecasts "probably slightly positive growth" next year.

Earlier this year, the central bank gave a range of between -0.5% to +0.8% for next year's growth, stating economic uncertainties didn't allow for a more accurate prediction, Reuters reports.

Within its latest monthly outlook, the Bank of France said the country's economy is on track to end the year with slightly positive growth in Q4.

"This probably translates into a 2.6% growth rate for all of this year," Villeroy added